Some Consumers Still Don't Get It

Let's get to the point. This morning's release of unemployment (down from June) and payrolls up did not help things either. Once again, giddy investors trying to look for the silver lining to make themselves feel good about investing in the stock market. So once again...they pull their money out of bonds to invest in those stocks. This makes bond prices fall, as they want to attract more buyers with the low price, and yields (rates) go up on those bonds. Hence, there you have it, the mortgage backed securities are affected. Yesterday we had a reprice 2 times, and today already once.

So what is the takeaway? How about I explain it like this. I had a prospect email me yesterday and linked me to a graph (from the internet) of what the benchmark 30 yr fixed 'potentially' could do in the next 9 months. He is nervous. Doesnt know if he should buy. When? How can he assure himself the best rate?

He had asked for my opinion, so I gave it to him. No sugarcoating. In the nicest , most diplomatic way I know how, I implored him to consider that this was the home he was going to raise his family. Spend his free time, throwing ball with his kids. This was NOT Vegas, and trying to play the market by estimating the exact time to get in on a 5% rate was surely setting him up for disappointment. Surely. And further, that anything under 7%, historically speaking, is a gift. So in summary, I advised him to make an offer when the timing and the price seemed right for his family, and not to gauge it on what rate he thinks he will/will not get . Rates will increase. That is a given, with inflation surely soon to set in.

I'll end this weeks thoughts with a short story. I had a friend call me about a refinance. Her husband has bad credit, so the loan has to be in her name (she has 700 score). But she has no job. Husband earns cash, and deposits in her account. She recently went to get a car loan, and they gave it to her, without checking the employment, and thought surely this meant that now she could get a mortgage by just verifying deposits to her bank account each month, and 'saying' the job was hers. At first, I was not sure how to respond, thinking it must be April Fools day. But then very politely, and patiently, I said that (1) we cannot verify cash , and (2) It was not willing to mislead my employer about her work history when that was not true (aka: Fraud!= Jail).

Takeaway on this short story? SOME CONSUMERS DONT GET IT. So rather than wondering if they qualify or not, get them to us EARLY for pre qualification. That way we can set the record straight early on.

KNOW AND LOVE YOUR LENDER

Hmmmm. What to write about on a Friday afternoon at 3:30? The fact that I survived the week? Or the ‘new’ regulation that began yesterday that no lenders can figure out, because it keeps changing? Or the fact that appraisals are a sore topic of discussion for us on a daily basis? Can anything go right? Yes it can….mortgage backed securities enjoyed a nice rally today as GDP was released, showing companies are hiring, economy may be stabilizing. But wait! Usually this type of news makes rates go up. We don’t like good news! But trailing behind the horizon is news that consumers still are not spending. The bitter doom and gloom that the bond market loves, at least for today at 3:30, rates are attractive. Monday may be another story.

Thought for the weekend: KNOW AND LOVE YOUR LENDER. In these legislative times, and with regulation changing constantly, it is more important than ever that your clients know and trust their lender. Do I need to say more?

What I am seeing in the Real Estate Market

The term 'be careful what you wish for' is so overrated.....but true. Stocks and bonds were mixed this week. With good news of the earnings reports for some companies, and increased home sales, mixed with the bad news of unemployment, a jobless recovery and health care reform battles, NO WONDER bonds did not know how to price mortgage rates!

I did see a glimmer, and I mean glimmer, of 4.875% on Wednesday, for about 90 minutes. Then it was gone, as quickly as my winnings in Vegas last summer.

What am I seeing in the market? Lots of contracts, lots of backup offers, increased close times, so-so quality on appraisals, increased documentation from our investors, lots of review appraisals, longer underwriting times, lock extension fees, and volatility in rates. What else is new? This is the world we live in folks. And it may get worse before it gets better.

Ongoing advice to you is COMMUNICATE, and do it early - with everyone in the transaction. If you are not a list maker, BE ONE. If your client refuses to get pre approved early, THINK TWICE, and if you sense something does not seem right with a lender, title co, etc, ACT EARLY. And last but not least, BE FLEXIBLE. Your closings will be delayed when you least expect it. Advise your sellers not to move out until docs are at title, and don't let your buyers schedule movers that cannot be changed either. THIS WILL HAPPEN TO ALL OF US, even with the best intentions. Even when we are all on top of it. Something will come up, I promise you.

Tips to survive the recent TILA changes effective July 30

Let me preface the next paragraph by saying that Patriot Bank Mortgage is committed to the success of your business! We have been embracing changes as they happen, so that we can ease the transitions and complexities of the real estate industry as we know it today.

Now, for the news. On the heels of the HVCC (appraisal) changes we saw May 1, we now have disclosure changes that affect how mortgage companies will have to disclose to consumers. HERA (The Housing and Economic Recovery Act) was passed by Congress and the Federal Reserve to provide a more transparent, level and fair regulation of the real estate industry. These additional steps (effective July 30, 2009) are to help avoid deceptive lending practices:

The earliest a home purchase transaction (with a loan) can close is 7 BUSINESS days after the homebuyer is issued his initial truth in lending disclosure from the lender. M- Sat are considered business days. ·

Application fees cannot be collected until the initial disclosures are received (this could delay appraisals being ordered) ·

ANY change to the loan amount (ex. Sale price), days of interest, or fees (that all affect the Truth in Lending disclosure) , will trigger a new 3 day disclosure and waiting period until the transaction can close. Hence, last minute changes to the contract, or change in closing date from initial application, ‘could’ (not always) impact the closing date.

Tips to ensure timely closings: ·

• Set realistic expectations with listing agents, seller and buyer for potential closing dates)- 30 days min . is a ‘wise’ choice·
• Be sure the lender and title company are in contact as early as possible in the transaction. Title and mortgage need to work together on fees/disclosure , etc more than ever.·
• Be sure homebuyers understand that if their loan is not locked until later toward closing (if they choose to float), this could impact the APR, and therefore trigger new disclosure 3 day period, therefore delaying closing. Borrowers should NOT expect to be able to float down their rate or switch lenders last minute. This would trigger close date changes for sure.·
• Be in constant contact with the lender, and ensure title/lender have a ‘preliminary’ HUD 4 days prior to closing, in case a new TIL disclosure required.·
• Make changes to the contract (lowering price, seller credits, etc) is done as EARLY as possible, and that lenders have those amendments asap, so they can redisclose early.

In the Chronicle, July 15, business section, Scott Burns had a wonderful article titled ‘Buying a Home Takes a Miracle’. He sums it up nicely in the last paragraph : “There is no way you can accumulate enough paper to substitute for human judgement. The No Paper System did not work, It created the housing crisis. The Infinite Paper system that replaced it doesn’t work either. It will extend the crisis. Scott, those are wise words. Only time will tell. We have no choice, Jennifer, but to embrace this change, and hit it head on with changing the way we do business. We must be more tenacious than ever, and encourage team work more than ever as well.

No Democracies with Fannie/Freddie - Happy 4th!

May you enjoy and cherish this precious day, and remember what a gift FREEDOM is! We are so blessed to live in a country with the ideals of independence and democracy. The thought of managing 302 million people is overwhelming! No wonder our legislators cannot agree. But that is the beauty of it all! We need balances, so that we can continue to function as a democracy.

As for the mortgage industry, no democracies here! It is Fannie /Freddie way or the highway. We continue to see increased regulation, silently trickling into our everyday lives. More disclosures. More verifications, and ultimately, more cost to the consumer. That is what ultimately will happen. In many cases, it already has.

Why do we think the rates are not lower than they are? If they followed the 10 year bond as in historic past, the yields would be below 5 for sure. But investors are tired (not to mention poor), and they are not going to 'give it away' this time around like they did in 03/04 during the last rate craze. They want profits, and they want them big. What we have seen is a 'no mercy 'attitude from our lenders. No exeptions, no forgiveness, no anything. It is brutal, but we are managing and shielding this from our clients as much as we can, to continue to ensure a stress free transaction!

This weeks letter is short, and as promised last week, more information on the July 30 changes is coming in my next letter. This week was crazy with month end and I dont have all the facts yet. I hope you are off somewhere fun , and relaxing.Until next week.........

Home Valuation Code of Conduct - ACT NOW!

This is a SPECIAL EDITION , and the most important column I have ever written. The integrity of the appraisal process as we know it has been severely, and I mean severely, compromised.

All of you realtors have likely already been affected somehow if you have closed a loan since May 1, when HVCC (Home Valuation Code of Conduct) became our reality after a very persuasive New York Atty General persuaded Fannie and Freddie to amend their guidelines to his personal gain- winning a case. You need to forward this to ALL YOUR CLIENTS, past , present, and future. The people that the legislators will listen to are the homeowners (not the realtors, nor the lenders, who’s income is dependent on the process. Not to mention lenders/loan officers are taboo now anyway, in their eyes). So if you are not selling a home today, you will be, and this will most certainly affect you! So consumers need to take action now! And of course if we do, it won’t hurt.


THIS IS HOW YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!
NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's Office: (212) 416-8000,
Internet ComplaintFederal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA): (866) 796-5595, director@fhfa.gov
Fannie Mae: (202) 752-7000, headquarters@fanniemae.com
Freddie Mac: (703) 903-2000,
Also, please contact your local TV and Newspaper outlets.

Below are talking points and background information to assist in your conversations. Please remember we are all professionals and should conduct ourselves accordingly in any communication with the above parties. For the most successful and influential calls, it is important to concisely quantify how the HVCC is affecting your consumer and your business.

Talking Points:
1) National Assoc of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) conservatively estimates (breakdown below) that the HVCC is costing consumers over 2.8 BILLION dollars a year in extra fees, created by long delays (extended lock-in fees) and higher appraisal costs.
2) Unregulated Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs), who have been the subject of several misconduct investigations, are the centerpiece of the HVCC. The original Cuomo investigation involved a federally chartered bank and an AMC.
3) AMCs are driving honest appraisers and mortgage brokers from business, eliminating competition, increasing costs to consumers and reducing state revenue. The HVCC is causing significant delays in real estate transactions, hurting real estate agents, title companies and other third parties reliant on turnaround time.
4) HVCC does nothing to reduce fraud, as it legitimizes the same failed model, which was the subject of Attorney General Cuomo's investigation.
5) No Portability! Consumers are "trapped" with a specific lender. If a better deal becomes available with a different lender, the consumer is forced to pay for another appraisal.

Background:
I. Lack of Portability
A. Lenders are not allowing borrowers to transfer appraisals, regardless of the reason.
B. Forces the borrower to pay for another appraisal and wait for a new appraiser to be assigned and complete it, increasing the total cost and time needed for obtaining a home. Delays in turnaround times also cause the borrower to miss rate lock deadlines and possibly face penalties charged by the lender.
C. In a poll conducted by NAMB, 75.8% of respondents said that 0% of their appraisals are portable since the enactment of the HVCC.

II. Lack of Quality
A. AMCs are assigning appraisers from a different municipality, county, or even state to appraise the target house, therefore unfamiliar with the neighborhood and unable to produce an accurate appraisal. i. Because of this, the HVCC is forcing appraisers to be in direct violation of the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) for jurisdictional competence.
B. Because AMCs pay appraisers such low fees, those assigned appraisers willing to do the work are often inexperienced and fail to adequately appraise the home.

III. Increased Cost of Appraisals
A. The minimum increase we have seen in direct consumer cost is $150 per appraisal. That, coupled with the drastically increased appraisal turnaround times that impose extended lock periods at an average expense of $561.95 per loan, is now costing consumers an estimated additional $711.95 per transaction.
B. $150.00 - minimum increase per appraisal$561.95 - average loan amount of $224,778 at .25% for extended lock period$711.95 - average total increase per transactionx 3,870,552* - 2007 HMDA report of residential real estate loans originated$2,755,639,496 - $2.8BILLION in increased fees to consumers!

IV. Articles Illustrating the Effects of the HVCC
A. The Appraisal Bubble - The Center for Public Integrity
B. The Cure is Worse than the Disease - Appraisal Press
C. Appraisals Roil Real Estate Deals - The Wall Street Journal Feel free to forward these articles and/or reference them in your conversations

Will mortgage rates go back down?

It feels like summer ! Not only is school out and the traffic is eased up, but it feels like summer! The glorious hot days dear to Houstonians are officially here. So are the home buyers! We continue to see contracts pending, and inventory lessening. Thank goodness! There are still, however, some appraisals that come back with inventory at a 6 mo + supply. To lenders, that means a ‘declining market’. And beware that if your listing is in such an area, the lender may have some additional conditions, or may not even do the loan at all. That’s right, declining markets are not favorable. The reason? If we foreclose, we don’t want large marketing times to get rid of it! It also signifies a trend downward in prices. No lender wants to be on the top end of the market. So encourage your sellers to consider all realistic offers. I suppose realistic is the main catch here. Who knows in these unprecedented times? There may be other reasons, but that is the main concern.

The First Time Homebuyer Credit – in all its glory, has to be the most confusing legislation there is right now. No one is clear on what, how or when. The latest rumor is that FHA will allow the moneys to advance for down payment. Part of it is true, but keep reading. Our representatives on Capitol Hill have no idea what has to happen to ‘advance’ a tax credit to a homeowner. Who will check if they are delinquent on any federal debt? Who will advance the money (a HUD memo states it has to be a ‘3rd party’, certainly not them). Ok, then who? Is it really a good idea to advance money anyway before its spent? Isn’t that what got us in this mess to begin with? And then, the legislation just last week changed yet again, and now FHA loan purchases can use the money ONLY toward closing costs, not down payment. Again, WHO will administer this money? No lender thus far has jumped on this idea. So the opportunity may be there for your buyers, but they need to settle to the fact they will get it upon filing 2009 return. Not too much to ask for free money!

Interest Rates – are still low! Maybe not the 4.5% of last month, but STILL historically, low! As compared to 2 weeks ago, almost up a full point! Why? Good news in the market. Could it be from the good news to investors that Angelo Muzilo has been charged with Fraud, and that gives them a ‘temporary’ feeling that the culprits are about to be caught? Or could it be that banks are to pay back tarp money? Or maybe the ‘come clean’ speech to Muslims by our President in Egypt last week. I would have thought that the unemployment doldrums would have shocked rates back down…but no such luck yet. Rates also have gone up due to positive indicators in the market. Words from our legislators and commander in chief like ‘not as bad as it was’, or ‘the recession end may be near’ ……those types of words allow investors in stocks to feel like buying. When they buy, investors pull money out of bonds. Then bond rates go up, as the price is down to attract buyers back into the bond market.

Will rates go back down? – THAT is the million dollar question. Who knows. But inflation and higher rates is INEVITABLE. Take my word. My advice? If your buyers are holding out for rates to come down, or purchase prices to come down, they may be missing the boat on living in the present. Our (primary) homes are where we raise our families and share time with loved ones. If it makes sense, do it. If not, wait. But hanging on for a false sense of reality may be missing the boat on opportunity that is right in front of them.

Beumont Appraiser to Valuate a River Oaks Listing

This is Major Hernandez, reporting from the enemy lines. Lots of activity this week. We were shot at by underwriters, dodged by appraisers, and yelled at by our processors. JUST KIDDING. It is sometimes a war zone though! Mostly from some of the recent regulation passed down (my previous emails have mentioned the appraisal changes). I thought this week I would summarize for you the day in the life of a mortgage originator. Maybe there will be one tidbit of information you can use to help your clients close on time!

Here is a summary of what happened this week:·
Clients current lender (the FDIC) offered a 15% principal reduction if he would refinance within 30 days !·

Rumored by one of my competitors that underwriters no longer accept a non realty add – THIS IS WRONG……·

Mortgage Lender (remaining nameless) is turning away clients saying 90 days min processing time to close – actually 2 (hint: they are in the top 5 national lenders)·

Seller rejects pre approval letter from buyers mortgage company because fear they will not close on time (one of the national lenders mentioned above)·

Realtor I know gets a call from an appraiser (not mine!) from Tyler , TX (this is a true story)·
Prospect calls me and asks if we do liar loans- IS HE KIDDING?·

At closing, we discover that borrower quit his job (we always call the day of closing to the employer!!!) HINT: don’t quit job day of closing·

We saved 2 borrowers from losing their close dates- and closed their loan in 7 days! (the first lender dropped the ball for the last 6 weeks). Hard to do in this market!

Well, at least I can say my job is interesting. Actually, I love every minute of it! So please, if you have a client that needs a trusted mortgage lender, we are your answer. Thank you for your referrals!

Houston Housing is Solid!

You may have noticed I have not written in a while. Well I am back after a 3 week sabbatical (wishing the excuse was vacation!) . The great news today is that everyone wants a piece of these rates! So if your pipelines have not begun to increase, they will. Remember, that the deadline for the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit of $8,000 is Dec 1, 2009. Also….the premonition is that within 12 – 18 months, inflation will set in. Who knows where rates will go then? Our 4-5% mortgages may look really good by then. Cocktail party conversation!

Let me get the statement over with. Yes, parts of Houston are feeling the results of some minor devaluation. How could we not, with the other 49 states feeling such drastic effects? The mentality of the consumer has surely been tainted. BUT I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT SOME REAL, POSITIVE FACTS about why your clients should be buying now! Other than the obvious- interest rates. We must invest in our economy, if we are to turn things around.

In Houston:
Housing is Solid, with an average of 6 months supply - a healthy market! (Metro Study, Q3, 2008)
Is the #1 best city to buy a home , as rated by Forbes Magazine, August 2008,
Ranks #1 for Job Growth in the Nation - 17% of the entire country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Largest IT Service Economy (Onforce, Inc, December 5, 2008)
America's Best Hospitals (US News& World Report , July 2008)
Best Big City for Business (Inc.com , July 2008)
We are survivors! Think about our recovery from Allison, Enron, and recently Ike.

Patriot Bank is growing right with Houston. We are the 5th Largest Bank domiciled within the city (and we are only 5 years old!). We are THE LARGEST privately owned bank within the city. Our total assets are currently at just over 1 Billion dollars. The most important aspect of our bank, in my opinion, is that our Total Equity Capital is 12%, where our peers are at 9%. And 6% is the minimum government requirement. That is awesome, and secure!

First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit

Love. It does make the world go around, doesn’t it? Let us temporarily forget in its bliss? My hope for you on this day is that you find the love you have always been looking for! As for the mortgage business, there is not much love to be found, or so it feels sometimes. We have good days and bad days. But for the most part, really, it is still good.

Things are starting to look up for home buying! Rates have come back down to historic lows. Still not quite as low as early January, but low. Where is the 4.25% I keep hearing about? That should tell you something, hearing……..In other words, should we hold our breath? Let’s enjoy the 4.625% of today!

The stimulus package that has passed Congress (to be signed into bill tomorrow) has some important changes to the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It is raised to $8,000. It does not have to be repaid if you live in the home at least 3 years. It is extended to Dec 2009. A local/state government agency may advance the credit to home buyers for closing. This is the clause I would like to see more detail on. We still do not know which government agency this would be. It will be an awesome task, to say the least, to advance this credit. As I hear more detail, I will surely pass it on.

Changes for investors? Currently, Fannie Mae limits the TOTAL number of properties an investor can finance to 4 (including their homestead). It has forced a huge decline in investment property financing. We need investors to help us gobble up these foreclosures! There is a rumor this may be reversed back to 10. There is no confirmation yet. Stay tuned. That would surely put the love back in the air for some of us.

Wishing you and yours a wonderful Valentine weekend! I am here now with my little kiddo in my arms. Nowhere I would rather be. Off to watch my 100th episode of Monsters Inc…………..

How Stimulus Package Affects Housing

Another exciting week, as rates were up down, up ,down, and finally down .25% from last week. Will we ever see 4.0%? I don’t know, but if it makes sense right now to buy or refinance, do it. That is my ongoing advice.

There is rumor that a $15,000 homebuyer credit has been approved in the Senate. I have not been able to confirm , but I know it is looming. Currently, there is APPROVED a $7500 tax credit that is given at the time they file their taxes. So, if a first time homeowner (who makes less than $75,000/year) buys before July 2009, they can claim this credit for 2008 (if they file an extension) or on 2009 tax return (a whole year from now!). The credit offsets the tax they owe, and is required to be repaid over 15 years. So basically, and interest free loan.

The NEW PROPOSAL posed to the Senate as a part of the stimulus package is: Increase the credit to $15,000 (or 10% of the purchase price if less), and available to ALL homebuyers, regardless of income or purchase history, and not require repayment. Wow. That would spur some buying for sure. I will just avoid thinking where that money will come from for now. Let’s just take a bat for the team on this one, and call it a good thing.

I saw an article online that said ‘Credit Standards Tighten’. Where has that journalist been? That is old news! Yes, it is true. There are more rules, more paperwork. But we just get through it all somehow. The funniest example I have is one of our investors now requires that any letters of explanation for the borrower are handwritten, not typed. Hint: loan officers have really good writing skills. But isn’t that funny? We are going to such extremes. But again, a bat for the team. When I am 80, I hope to look back on 2009 with a grin, and know that I helped a lot of people accomplish the American dream of homeownership.

Mortgage Financing is Definitely Available!

Houston is known for its hot weather, but days like today make it all worthwhile! No wonder our New Year season is always labeled as the kick start to the home buying season. Is it the crisp weather, or the sense of starting with a ‘clean slate’ that motivates buyers to put off buying until the Spring each year? Whatever the reason, this year I have surely seen an increase in buyers. And financing is definitely available! Take for example, the fact that I am in the office on a Saturday, and was last Saturday. In fact, after I wrote my newsletter to you last week (on Saturday!), I received 4 new referrals, all purchases, and had to come in Sunday. My husband has just resolved to the fact dishes and laundry are now on his honey do list! If your prospective buyer roster has not filled up yet, my prediction is that it will, and fast. So enjoy the silence. Use your time wisely to get recharged and organized.

What about these rates? With the Fed announcing this last week their plans to buy mortgage backed securities, a partial approval of the stimulus plan for the economy, and the news that national home sales ROSE 9% in December, you would think the rates would have gone down. Well, except these are different times. Unchartered territory. The stock market is manic (really). Nothing seems to make sense or follow basic economic principles anymore. After this weeks’ news, the bond market (where mortgages most closely relate) did not fare well, as yields , or rates, of bonds lowered because (1) the bailout plan shows flaws, and had not Republican support (2) The FED did not announce ‘specific’ plans for purchasing securities and ( c) 100,000 layoffs that were announced. So you see, the news is never good enough! Never specific enough!

Despite what you may hear, the government cannot directly control the rates . They can purchase the mortgage backed securities in an attempt to push the rates down, but what if that doesn’t work? What if ‘other’ pressures on the bond market cause their plan backfire? It could very well happen, and some critics of this strategy are anticipating it. So my point here is that borrowers (whether purchasing or refinancing) need to take what they can get NOW. Enjoy these low rates now. Waiting on the sidelines for 4.5% or lower, may be about as reasonable as me hoping to win the lottery tonight – when I didn’t even buy a ticket.

Rates to 4.625%, Will builders be the next demise?

Well, on Friday I did receive confirmation from Santa that I have been good….rates were 4.625% on a 30 year fixed. (They were 4.5% for about an hour). This is for purchases. Refinances are a bit higher, so additional quotes apply. My feeling is that this WILL spark the interest of home buyers, and that activity in the new year will be renewed, and that it will spark the activity the government is hoping for. Why are rates so low? Who cares…take it for what it is, if I can be so blunt.

What else can I write about this week? I already hit the climax…the rates! Should I write about the deal that almost didn’t close because the appraisal was almost denied for high land/value ratio, or the builder we had to deny for a construction loan (a well known one at that)….. I better not. It’s too negative! But I will summarize to only say that things are tight. Banks are tight because they can be. But wasn’t it this way 7 or 8 years ago? Yes it was, but who can remember back that far? I surely cannot.


I would like to address builders. I predict that this is the next industry to be really affected by our economic downturn (recession!). In fact they already are. Track builders mostly, who build specs. But custom builders too. They are being squeezed , and in some cases cut off, by banks . The strong builders are surviving, and are being required to put more equity in deals. Gone are the days of 100% cost lending. So, in turn, builders with inventory worried . They cannot get more lines to build more homes. Many will unfortunately go under. Spec lending is on hold with many banks, including ours. The banks just don’t want the risk. So I sit here and think what this could mean for consumers: (a) Good deals on new construction (b) less inventory , and that will cause inventory homes to be more expensive. (c) less new homes, for now. ONLY MY PREDICTION that has no merit other than my own.

hope you are enjoying the holidays! Have a great week, and keep saying your prayers. Its working. Oh, by the way, the 30 and 15 fixed being the SAME is not a typo…….strange, but true.

Rates down to 4.875%, be careful what you wish for!

Merry Christmas….oh, is it not Christmas yet? I thought the 4.875% 30 Fixed I saw this morning was Santa’s gift to me for being such a good girl this year. Then it vanished into thin air hours later, and we are at 5.25% . We should be careful what we wish for. Rates are extremely low, but the economy is in the tanker. There are so many things making the yields (rates) of bonds go down on a daily basis. Remember that yields/rates down means prices are up. Prices up means that there is more demand for bonds. This happens when investors lose confidence in stocks, and they buy more bonds. For the mortgage coupons these days, no one seems to know what they are buying. The spreads between buying a point are unreal, anywhere from .500% - .750%. Never in 14 years have I seen that much of a spread. So save your money to buy that point down, otherwise, you will be paying dearly in the interest rate.

Some headlines for you, that affect the market in every way: Foreclosures have risen in every state in the nation (out just hours ago), foreclosures are forecasted to double in 09, California is on the verge of literally running out of money (all of Arnolds muscle flexing and charm means nothing now!), car giants are folding, we are officially in a recession (since Dec 07- ya think?), major corporate layoffs, terrorist attacks in Mumbai, changing regime in USA for the presidency, and to top all this off, there are pirates attacking ships off the coast of Somalia. Pirates? Are we living in some fairy tale now? Some days it sure feels like it.

But let’s look at the bright side! Gas is under $2.00/gallon, every consumer product imaginable is on sale, cars prices are rock bottom, and we have a new President that has given hope to the country, and seems like the world. There are right this very minute, 4,000 job openings in the Texas Medical Center that need to be filled. Houston is adding jobs! The Medical Center led us through the 80’s, and it will lead us through this, I can assure you.

I had a thought this week that should solve our country’s problems: why don’t we use part of lottery winnings to finance these bail outs!? The mega jackpot was $146 million! Who needs that kind of money anyway?

Does the new Homeowner Rescue Package encourage default?

Maybe this month I will not make my mortgage payment. Then, skip January and February too, and then I’ll be 90 days late so I can qualify for the homeowner’s assistance that was just passed through Congress. At that point, my mortgage payment will be reduced to 31% of my gross monthly income (good news if I lost my job). My rate will be set as low as 3% for five years, and amortized for as much as 40 years. Apparently there are 2.2 million borrowers that would benefit from this just like me. DO NOT GET ME WRONG here, I am all for helping out those in need. Those that have had the misfortune of a real estate market gone bad, a layoff , etc. Sometimes, however, the consequences are hard to process in my brain. I pay my bills, and , if I get laid off, I would work at Wal Mart if I had to , or wait tables, or something, in order to feed my family. Where does the buck stop between those of us that are ‘taking a bat for the team’, and those that will manipulate the system to benefit themselves? We saw it happen with FEMA assistance after Katrina (remember that?), and we will see it again. How will we be able to differentiate between those people that are really in need, or looking for a handout? Didn’t we all at some point benefit from (a) subprime, (b) stated income (c) high debt to income ratios, etc…………Are the people that foreclosed the ones that had those types of loans? Probably. But we will never know.



In the last couple of weeks, I have advised several people to contact HOPE NOW, the non profit agency that was formed in June 2007, to help persons renegotiate with their lenders. They have helped 2.5 million people avoid foreclosure since then. Even if temporarily. When you do foreclose, your credit will be affected. You will not be able to obtain another conventional loan for 5 years, or an FHA loan for 2 (FHA loans are limited to $270,050, currently). If you do a short sale, you will still fall into the same category. You are settling for less than the owed amount. In leiu of foreclosure. It is like a collection. So where will all these people go? They will be renters….time to buy a rent house! IT is a great time right now to be an investor…….If you can get the loan.



INVESTORS, in my opinion, have been hardest hit by the credit crunch. Maximum 4 properties financed, 20% down (rate is MUCH better if you do 25%), and full documentation of income. There are a lot of investors that do not meet that criteria. Who will buy these homes? The answer is, the investors that have cash, or form investment groups where they have multiple partners to qualify on the application. Or hard money for 14% and 5 points origination. Seriously. Hopefully some smart and savy financier will invent a product to service this segment of the market to allow these homes to be bought. That could be why much of the inventory is sitting there. In the past, the programs available allowed for investors to gobble up properties at a record pace. They balanced the market. Or did they? I have been searching for statistics on how many foreclosures were investment properties. I have not found it yet. But will keep you posted. So would we have been in this situation before now, or ever, had they never been able to get 0% down, stated income on an investment property? It sounds preposterous, doesn’t it?



Lastly, I would like to comment that RATES ARE DOWN THIS WEEK! The mortgage market continues to stay steady, and loans are definitely available. If you have CASH, CREDIT AND INCOME, you will have no problem at all. The key word is proof , proof, proof. Sometimes I wonder how we even deviated from that?

Even Qualified Borrowers are Holding Back......

Did you know that in Houston, sales are down, yes, but the average home price is up? That is economics at its best. Who would have expected that? I do not even pay attention to national stats anymore. Do they matter? Each housing market is in of itself, a statistic. Locally, I can report that for the first time in my entire career (14 years) I have noticed recently (this month) people holding back not sure what to do . Qualified borrowers. Maybe they are unsure about their job, or the down payment was coming from their stock that was losing money.



However, This week things did begin to pick back up for us. I reported last week that my desk was clean, well, it is dirty again, with papers disheveled and stacked. The phones have been ringing. I had 3 calls just this week to ‘save’ deals that were falling out with other lenders could not approve them. We are glad to assist! For you to know, we can close files in 48 hours if needed. But each of our realtors is only allowed 1 of those favors a month! That was, of course, a joke. Foreclosure filings have spiked 71%, nationally. In September, 81,312 homes were lost to foreclosure. Since a year ago, 851,000 have been repossessed by lenders.



This brings up a point I would like to share. Fannie and Freddie have of recent come up with some guidelines regarding homes that are being financed in areas with high foreclosures as a percent of the total sales in the last 12 months. If that number is greater than 15%, there is a problem. I had to turn down a borrower for that reason 3 months ago. He was purchasing a property in a neighborhood that had 27% foreclosures (as a % of total listings sold) in the last 12 months. I was mad, frustrated and quite frankly, baffled. How will we as a society ever get OUT of this mess, if the lenders will not even loan on properties they are foreclosing on? I understand that this ‘guideline’ is in place to avoid the lenders investing in areas that are on the decline, but when the homes are selling that should amount to something? There has to be a solution. But I have not been able to think of one, so stay tuned on that subject.



RATES ARE DOWN THIS WEEK! (.25%). The stock market took some heavy losses, and in anticipation of the Fed Funds rate possibly coming down another .500%, investors are pricing that into the market. Its about time we have some relief in rates. Now if we can convince Fannie/Freddie (aka the government, right?) to increase the conforming limit to $650,000 or so, we will be fine. It would be about time! There is a show on MSNBC called Mad Money. Cramer (the host) is just beside himself today. He is on right now, waiving his arms and screaming. Today’s headline is :‘The Dow is down 15 of the last 19 weeks. Down 36% total.’ MORE REASON TO PUT YOUR MONEY INTO REAL ESTATE! In my opinion, it is still the best investment there is.

Smart people are buying

Well, my desk is organized, I have worked out 6 times this week, AND been on time to pick up my son from school five days in a row. While these methods sound ideal, I function better with my chaotic life of running around with not a moment to spare and my cell phone ringing off the wall. It’s productive and energizing. My point here is that things are a bit slow. Since the hurricane, phones are ringing less, understandably, as people are putting lives back together. One thing I am hearing a lot of, is comments from prospective buyers that the stock market turmoil are making them consider twice before buying a home. I could not disagree more on their decision. For any buyer (in the nation) that has funds for down payment, good credit, and have debt to income ratios that are in line, it is an EXCELLENT time to buy! Good credit and down payment knows no boundaries, my friends. There is plenty of lending going on, believe me. What we do not have are buyers. They are holding off, during the most opportune time in perhaps history when inventories are high (meaning there are deals to be had), and rates are still historically low! 30 Year Fixed for 6.0% ? Come on….. you cannot get much better than that.

This week we did have quite a scare as the mortgage rates shot up ½% in a matter of days. But today we are exactly where we were a week ago. No banks went bankrupt this week, that is encouraging. As I visit with friends in the industry, I try to gather details you can use to support your business. To give you words that are encouraging in these troubled times. How about : (1) MSNBC.com wrote that Texas topped the list for job creation. Houston-Dallas-Fort Worth are 1-2-3 in the latest rankings of the 100 largest metropolitan areas. (2) Houston is forecasted have added 50,000-70,000 jobs total this year – that means that 33,000 new homes will be needed (1.5 homes for every job added) (3) That job creation number will be similar in 2009! (4) Patriot Bank STILL is offering their 4.0% high yield money market, and (5) The elections are almost over!!!!!

The uncertainty in the political leadership is touching every aspect of our economy. People naturally want to know what to expect. Then we can deal with it. Make a plan! In my opinion, that is why Wall Street has been so volatile, the mortgage rates are unpredictable, and buyers are adopting a wait and see approach. The smart folks are buying. They know opportunity when they see it.

Rates as of Friday, October 17, 2008 (net down for the week)

The following assumptions apply:
20% Down Payment
1% Origination Fee
Escrows Required (if no escrow, higher fees may apply)
Purchase Transactions,
Primary Residence
30 day closingCredit Score
720 +Full Documentation of Income/AssetsLoans
> 1 mm require 30% down for these terms Conforming
($250,000* - $417,000) Jumbo ($417,001- $1,500,000*)
30 year (fixed) 6.000% APR 6.130% 30 year ( fixed ) 7.005% APR 7.177% 15 year (fixed) 5.750% APR 5.966% 15 year ( fixed ) 6.350% APR 6.551% 3/1 ARM 5.600% APR 5.728% 3/1 ARM 5.600% APR 5.716% 5/1 ARM 5.375% APR 5.501% 5/1 ARM 5.500% APR 5.620%
7/1 ARM 5.625% APR 5.752% 7/1 ARM 5.750% APR 5.872%FHA/VA call for quote (max loan $270,000)

We do originate loans below $250,000. These amounts are chosen to show the most favorable rates. For other product options or for loan amounts less than $250,000 or above $1,500,000 please call for quote.We also do VA and FHA loans! Call for details! If you know of someone who would appreciate my services, please contact me with their name and number and I will be happy to help them!

Jennifer Hernandez
Vice President/Mortgage ConsultantPatriot Bank Mortgage
Office: 713-337-8400
Mobile: 713-446-7791
E-mail: jennifer@patriotbankusa.com
Web: www.loanwithjennifer.com
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