Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Learning from our mistakes

Have you seen the video from the season premiere of the Oprah show, where the audience that covered 2 blocks danced in unison to the Black Eyed Peas song? It is now in the Guinness Book of World Record as the largest crowd performance. Way cool. Look at it on You Tube. Will the USA get into this Guinness Book as the country that couldn't even get along? Imagine the possibilities if we did all get along, as this crowd did on the Oprah show. Currently, our country is severely divided by bipartisanship, and it does not feel good. Government against Mortgage, Lenders against Appraisers, Bank against Builder, and Homeowner against Taxing Authority, ........catch my drift? The list goes on and on. It was refreshing to hear yesterday on a morning news station, Former Governor Jeb Bush (R) say nice things about our President. He was encouraging both sides to get along. It was a really nice interview, and he commended Obama on his desire to strengthen education. Its good we all have opinions, but there has to be common ground.

Same rules apply in the mortgage industry. Daily, we are being bombarded by new regulation that is 'guilty until proven innocent'. But how could we not be? We are the industry responsible for the largest meltdown in US History. Just yesterday, a Houstonian woman, 32 years old, was convicted of conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, money laundering, engaging in a monetary transaction in criminally derived property. Do you know how? By stating the homes were primary residences, when they were not. They were really investment properties. She faces over 20 years in prison, on each count. This is serious stuff friends. We must continue to be careful about what we represent, and how the clients are conducting themselves. It is our business to know, as lenders, as realtors. Its our duty to ask.

Interest rates have enjoyed continual low levels UNTIL YESTERDAY. Our analysts predict they will never get this low again (we saw 4.375% last week for 2 hours). We have had 2 days of increases, and at least 3 reprices a day for the worse, as the stock market has gained some ground with positive earnings, lower than expected unemployment. Just remember, mortgage bonds hate news of recovery.

Values (in some areas) continue to decline. We just had a borrower, that their home in Needville has declined in the 4 months since they began to build (Needville is south of Sugarland). By 5-7%. That is a lot in a 4 month period. Appraisals continue to attract scrutiny from our investors, and that transposes to more stringent underwriting guidelines.

There is still no word on the First Time Homebuyer Credit being extended. Likely, we will not see that until the current deadline has passed. In order to keep the momentum going for year end. Strong numbers. Isn’t that what its all about? Temporarily inflating our sense of security so we can have profits now, and put together the pieces later? When will we learn?